I like optimists but ...

... the prediction by Investis that 'by 2016, 30% of visits to corporate websites will come from mobile devices' seems like wishful thinking. We track usage on a spread of corporate sites, and the numbers are nowhere near that - they cluster around 5 to 10 per cent. One crucial point is that we need a breakdown between tablet and smartphone - most standard sites can be read reasonably easily on a tablet (though there may be problems with things like dropdown menus), whereas on a  tiny screen you really do need something different. Another question is around growth - we have seen a doubling of both smartphone and tablet traffic - but the experience of companies that had mobile sites for several years is that usage flattens off. There's a simple reason for that - it's easier to look at complex information on a big screen, and most people in most countries have access to one. That's why we say you absolutely must consider the mobile user, but if you let your concentration on desktop users slip you will regret it - they are, for the most part, the same people. 

One of my colleagues says he will eat his iPhone if the Investis prediction is right. I will post the video if he does. That should go viral. 

- David Bowen